Three different things called "medical inflation"
Articles about rising healthcare costs often mix up three measures that move differently:
- Price inflation: what the same service costs this year compared with last year.
- Spending growth: total money spent on healthcare. It rises with prices, but also with how much care people use, population aging and new treatments.
- Medical trend: the year-on-year increase in claims costs that insurers project for the plans they sell, combining price and use.
None of these is the price of your procedure. They describe pressure on prices. A clinic's self-pay package can stay the same for a year in a market with high trend, or rise sharply in a market with low trend. Use these figures as context, and use a dated written quote for decisions.
The United States: spending figures
The latest official US figures come from the CMS National Health Expenditure accounts (CMS NHE Fact Sheet, 2024 data, USD):
| Measure (2024) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total national health spending | $5.3 trillion |
| Per person | $15,474 |
| Growth over 2023 | 7.2% |
| Share of GDP | 18.0% |
| Hospital spending | $1,634.7 billion (+8.9%) |
| Physician and clinical services | $1,109.7 billion (+8.1%) |
| Prescription drugs | $467.0 billion (+7.9%) |
CMS projects national health spending to grow by an average of 5.4% a year from 2025 to 2034, reaching 20.6% of GDP by 2034. Hospital spending, the category behind most surgical bills, grew faster than total spending in 2024.
These are spending totals, not price tags. Still, the direction matters for a self-pay patient. When hospital and physician spending grows at 8–9% in a year, there is little sign that US cash prices for procedures are falling. Our explainer on why US healthcare costs so much covers the structural reasons.
The world: insurers' 2026 projections
WTW's 2026 Global Medical Trends Survey asked 346 insurers in 82 countries, between June and July 2025, what they expected medical costs to do in 2026 (WTW, 2025 survey). Its projected gross trend rates:
| Region | Projected 2026 medical trend |
|---|---|
| Asia Pacific | 14.0% |
| Latin America | 11.9% |
| Middle East and Africa | 11.3% |
| Global | 10.3% |
| North America | 9.2% |
| Europe | 8.2% |
Insurers worldwide most often named new medical technologies (74%), decline of public healthcare systems (52%), advances in pharmaceuticals (49%) and fraud, waste and abuse (38%) as cost drivers. For the Americas, the top three were pharmaceutical advances, new medical technologies and little or no cost-sharing.
Keep in mind what this survey measures. It reports what insurers expect for the plans they cover, mostly employer-sponsored. It doesn't give country figures for Colombia or Mexico, and it isn't a measure of package prices offered to foreign self-pay patients.
What a higher Latin American trend does and doesn't mean
Medical-tourism marketing often claims US costs are rising faster than destination costs, so the savings keep growing. The 2026 survey doesn't support that as a general rule. Insurers expect Latin America's trend to be higher than North America's this year.
That doesn't mean savings are disappearing. Percentages work on different starting points: a higher percentage rise on a lower base can still be a smaller increase in dollars. And individual clinics set self-pay prices for their own reasons, such as competition, demand and currency. The honest conclusion is that you can't assume the gap is growing or shrinking. You have to check it, for your procedure, with current quotes.
Colombia's 2026 labor-cost signal
One input to Colombian healthcare costs changed sharply this year. Blu Radio reported in December 2025 that the government's decree raised the monthly minimum wage for 2026 by 23%, from COP 1,423,500 to COP 1,750,905 (Blu Radio, December 2025). The minimum wage isn't what surgeons earn. It sets the floor for the lowest-paid jobs in any hospital, and a rise that large puts pressure on staffing budgets.
How much of that reaches a hospital's package price will vary. Some facilities will raise prices, some will absorb the increase, and quotes in US dollars will also move with the exchange rate. If you have a Colombian quote from 2025, ask whether it's still valid in 2026 before you plan around it.
Currency can matter more than inflation
For a US patient paying a foreign provider, the exchange rate can move more in a few months than medical inflation does in a year. A peso-denominated quote can get cheaper or more expensive in dollars without the clinic changing anything. A dollar-denominated quote shifts that risk to the provider, who may then reprice more often. See currency swings and locking your quote for how to handle this.
Which parts of a quote feel the pressure
The drivers insurers name point to which parts of a procedure quote are most likely to change:
- Medication lines. Pharmaceutical advances were a top driver for the Americas. Expect drug-heavy treatments, such as fertility medication, biologics and specialty drugs, to change price more often than an operating-room fee.
- Devices and new technology. New medical technology was the most-cited driver worldwide. Implants, robotic or navigation-assisted surgery and newer imaging are where premium options and upgrade charges tend to appear.
- Labor-heavy services. Nursing, recovery stays and rehabilitation follow local wage costs, which is where Colombia's 2026 wage decision matters most.
What 2026 means for three kinds of patient
Insured in the US
Your exposure is your deductible, coinsurance and out-of-pocket maximum, which can change when your plan renews, rather than the hospital's price. Check your 2026 plan terms before comparing anything with a cash price abroad.
Self-pay in the US
You face the provider's current cash price. Get it in writing for this year rather than relying on an estimate from a previous year.
Comparing a foreign package
You face the provider's current package price plus exchange-rate risk. Ask for a validity date and the currency of each payment.
How to protect a quote against 2026 price changes
- Date everything. Write the issue date next to every price, including prices from articles. Our stale-price audit explains how to judge how old is too old.
- Ask for a validity period in writing, and what happens if your surgery date moves past it.
- Confirm the currency of the quote, the deposit and the balance.
- Find out what's fixed. Some providers fix the package price but let the extras (extra nights, medication, devices) follow current rates.
- Re-quote the home option too. A US estimate from last year is as stale as a foreign one.
- Keep a buffer. If your plan only works at last year's prices, it's fragile.
Don't adjust old prices with an inflation rate
It's tempting to take a 2024 price, add a trend percentage and call the result a 2026 estimate. Avoid it. Trend rates describe insurer claims costs across a whole market, not one provider's price for one procedure. Inflating an old figure creates a number that looks precise and isn't. A new quote takes about the same effort and gives you a real number.
The Takeaway
In 2026, costs are rising both at home and in Latin America, and insurers expect Latin America's trend to be the faster of the two this year. The difference between US and foreign prices is real but not fixed. Check it with current, dated, written quotes in a known currency.
Frequently asked questions
How fast is US health spending growing?
CMS reports US national health spending grew 7.2% in 2024 to $5.3 trillion, or $15,474 per person, and 18.0% of GDP. CMS projects average growth of 5.4% a year from 2025 to 2034.
What medical trend do insurers expect globally in 2026?
WTW's survey of 346 insurers in 82 countries projects a 10.3% global medical trend for 2026: 14.0% for Asia Pacific, 11.9% for Latin America, 11.3% for the Middle East and Africa, 9.2% for North America and 8.2% for Europe.
Is the cost gap between the US and Colombia getting bigger?
You can't assume either way. Insurers expect Latin America's 2026 trend to be higher than North America's, but percentages apply to different starting prices, and clinics set self-pay packages independently. Compare current quotes for your procedure.
Will Colombian medical prices rise in 2026?
Some may. Colombia's 2026 minimum wage rose 23% to COP 1,750,905, as reported in December 2025, which affects hospital staffing costs. How much any provider passes on varies, so ask whether an older quote is still valid.
Can I update an old medical price by adding an inflation rate?
It's not reliable. Trend and inflation figures describe whole markets, not one provider's price for one procedure. Ask for a new dated quote with a stated validity period and currency.